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기타학술도서 |
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[확대 보기] |
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| 제목 |
사건으로 읽는 러시아 경제 |
| 저자 |
이종문 |
| 정가 |
25,000 원 |
| 출간일 |
2026.02.27 |
| 부가정보 |
쪽수
: 500 쪽 || 판형 : 신국판 |
| ISBN |
979-11-7342-133-4 (93320) |
| 주문여부 |
주문가능
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이 책은 1917년 2월과 10월 발생한 두 차례의 러시아 혁명이 소련의 사회주의 계획경제를 어떻게 형성하고 발전시켰는지를 출발점으로, 1980년대 체제 정체 속에서 미하일 고르바초프의 페레스트로이카가 구조적 한계로 실패에 이르게 된 과정을 풀어낸다. 이어 소련 붕괴와 1990년대 체제 전환기 동안 보리스 옐친 정부가 추진한 급진적 시장개혁이 안정적 시장 자본주의로 정착하지 못하고, 블라디미르 푸틴 집권 이후 국가자본주의 체제로 재편되는 역사적 흐름을 다양한 자료와 분석을 통해 심도 있게 조명한다. 또한 2000년대 중반 이후 러시아 경제가 경험한 고도성장과 함께 2008년 글로벌 금융위기, 2014년 크림 병합과 서방 제재, 2015~2016년 셰일 혁명과 저유가, 2020년 코로나19 팬데믹, 2022년 우크라이나 전쟁 등 연속적인 대내외 사건이 가져다준 충격을 중심으로 국민경제의 변화와 정부의 대응 전략을 고찰한다. 이를 통해 본서는 러시아 경제 체제의 형성과 변화, 그리고 현재 구조를 역사적 맥락 속에서 이해할 수 있는 통합적 분석 틀을 제시하고자 한다.
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서론 | 3
I. 소비에트의 사회주의 계획경제
1. 1917년 러시아 혁명과 레닌의 시장사회주의 ····································13
1) 1917년 2월 러시아 혁명 ···································································14
2) 1917년 레닌의 4월 테제와 10월 혁명 ···················································17
3) 레닌의 사회주의 국가 통제 경제 건설 ··················································21
4) 1918년 러시아 내전과 전시공산주의····················································28
5) 1921년 신경제정책(NEP. 1921~1928) ·················································35
2. 스탈린의 중앙집중식 계획경제와 국가사회주의 ································47
1) 스탈린의 일국사회주의론 ··································································47
2) 스탈린의 국가사회주의 건설 ······························································49
(1) 농업 집단화 | 49
(2) 초기 5개년 국민 경제 발전 계획 | 56
(3) 제2차 세계대전 후 5개년 국민 경제 발전 계획 | 65
3. 흐루쇼프의 해빙과 ‘위대한 10년’ ····················································72
1) 흐루쇼프의 탈(脫) 스탈린주의(해빙기) ·················································72
2) 흐루쇼프의 경제개혁(1953-1964) ·······················································74
3) 위대한 10년(1954~1964년)의 명암 ·····················································79
4. 브레즈네프의 ‘발전된 사회주의’와 ‘정체의 시대’ ·······························86
1) 브레즈네프의 ‘발전된 사회주의’ ··························································86
2) 코시긴의 경제개혁(1965년, 1973년, 1979년) ········································88
3) 1960년대 후반 서시베리아 석유 붐과 1970년대 오일 쇼크 ························96
4) 1979년 12월 아프가니스탄 침공 ·······················································103
5) 브레즈네프 시대의 ‘정체(застой)’ ······················································108
6) 소련의 경제성장 전략과 한계 ··························································· 114
II. 고르바초프(1985~1991)의 페레스트로이카
1. 1985년 고르바초프의 서기장 취임과 개혁의 시작 ··························· 121
1) 1985년 고르바초프의 서기장 취임 ····················································121
2) 우스코레니예(Uskorenye. 가속화) ···················································125
2. 고르바초프의 소비에트 체제 구조개혁 ··········································128
1) 소비에트 체제 구조조정(1987~1988) ·················································128
(1) 페레스트로이카(Perestroika. 재건) | 128
(2) 글라스노스트(Glasnost. 개방) | 131
2) 체제 전환기의 개혁(1989~1991) ·······················································133
(1) 정치 개혁과 개방 확대 | 133
(2) 경제개혁과 시장 이행의 시도 135
(3) 고르바초프 정부의 ‘경제 개혁안’ 논의 | 139
(4) 1991년 화폐 개혁과 상품 가격 인상 | 142
3) 고르바초프 개혁의 경제 성적표 ························································144
4) 고르바초프 개혁의 한계 ·································································147
3. 1991년 8월 보수파 쿠데타와 체제 개혁의 좌절 ······························150
1) 1991년 8월 보수파 쿠데타 ······························································150
2) 고르바초프의 대통령 사임과 쿠데타의 의미 ········································151
III. 옐친 시대(1990년대) 러시아의 시장 자본주의 혁명
1. 옐친의 소비에트 연방 해체와 가이다르의 시장경제로의 빅뱅 ············154
1) 1991년 옐친의 러시아 대통령 당선과 소비에트 연방 해체 ·······················154
2) 1992년 가이다르 내각의 시장경제로의 빅뱅 ········································159
(1) 가격 자유화 | 162
(2) 거시경제 안정화 | 168
(3) 개혁의 후퇴와 가이다르의 퇴진 | 174
2. 1992년 자본주의 체제로의 전환 시작 : 국유재산의 사유화 ··············178
1) 대중 분배 바우처(voucher) 사유화(1992~1994) ···································178
2) 주식담보 대출(loans for shares) 경매 사유화(1995~1996) ·····················185
3) 현금/직접 매각(cash/direct sale) 사유화(1997~1999) ····························192
4) 사유화 정책의 성과 ·······································································193
3. 1993~1997년 체르노미르딘 내각의 정책 전환과 금융 스캔들 ···········200
1) 1993년 체르노미르딘 내각의 정책 전환 ··············································200
2) 1994년 10월 11일 검은 화요일(루블화 폭락) ······································204
3) 1994년 금융회사 MMM의 금융 피라미드 ············································209
4) 1994~1998년 러시아 정부의 단기국채(GKO) 피라미드 ··························215
4. 1990년대 러시아 올리가르히의 경제·정치 지배 ·······························223
1) 1990년대 초 올리가르히의 등장과 금융 지배 ·······································223
2) 1996년 대통령 선거와 올리가르히의 정치 권력 ····································229
3) 1998년 모라토리엄 이후 올리가르히의 산업 지배 ·································232
5. 1998년 러시아 금융위기와 8월 모라토리엄 ····································234
1) 1998년 러시아 금융위기 ·································································234
2) 1998년 8월 17일 모라토리엄 선언 ····················································244
3) 1998년 금융위기와 모라토리엄 원인 ·················································246
4) 1998년 8월 모라토리엄의 피해와 파장 ···············································253
6. 1999년 옐친의 사임과 러시아 체제 전환기 경제 성과 ······················260
1) 1999년 12월 옐친의 사임 ·······························································260
2) 1990년대 러시아 경제 성과 ·····························································261
3) 1990년대 옐친 시대 러시아 경제 평가 ················································274
IV. 푸틴 시대(2000년대) 러시아 국가자본주의
1. 2000년 푸틴의 대통령 당선과 경제개혁(그레프 프로그램) ················277
1) 푸틴의 러시아 연방 3대 대통령 당선 ··················································277
2) 푸틴의 집권 1기(2000~2003) 경제개혁 ··············································280
2. 2000~2007년 푸틴의 국가자본주의 구축 ······································288
1) 2003년 석유기업 유코스(Yukos) 해체 ················································288
2) 푸틴의 올리가르히 체제 재편 ···························································290
3) 푸틴의 국가자본주의 구축(2000~2007년) ···········································294
(1) 러시아 국가자본주의 형성과 발전 | 294
(2) 러시아 국가자본주의 특성 | 303
4) 옐친 시대와 푸틴 시대 경제개혁과 정책 비교 ·······································310
3. 2000년대 중반 세계 경제의 골디락스와 러시아 경제의 고도성장 ······ 312
1) 2000년대 골디락스와 러시아의 경제 성과 ···········································312
(1) 세계 경제의 골디락스 시대 | 312
(2) 골디락스 시대 러시아의 경제 성과 | 314
2) 2000년대 러시아 경제성장의 특징과 한계 ···········································320
(1) 2000년대 러시아 경제성장의 특징 | 320
(2) 2000년대 러시아 경제성장의 문제점 | 322
4. 2000년대 중반 글로벌 상품 시장 슈퍼 사이클과 러시아 경제의 명암 ·····324
1) 글로벌 원자재 시장의 슈퍼 사이클 ····················································324
2) 러시아의 광물자원 잠재력 ·······························································325
3) 러시아의 자원 의존 경제구조의 고착화 ··············································329
(1) 러시아의 천연자원 렌트((Natural Resource Rents) | 330
(2) 러시아 자원 의존 경제구조의 고착화 | 331
5. 2008년 글로벌 금융위기와 러시아 경제의 충격 ······························339
1) 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 ································································339
2) 러시아 경제의 충격 ·······································································341
3) 러시아 정부의 정책 대응·································································349
6. 2014년 서방의 제재와 러시아의 요새화 전략 ·································353
1) 우크라이나 유로마이단과 러시아의 크림반도 병합 ································354
2) 서방의 러시아 경제제재··································································358
3) 러시아의 대응 : 요새화 전략 ····························································361
4) 2014년 러시아 경제의 충격과 성과 ···················································365
7. 2015~2016년 원유시장 치킨게임과 러시아 경제 침체 ·····················375
1) OPEC-미국 셰일산업의 치킨게임과 국제유가 ······································375
(1) 셰일 혁명과 OPEC-미국의 치킨게임 | 375
(2) 2014~2016년 국제유가 동향과 가격 변동 요인 | 378
2) 2015~2016년 러시아 경제 침체 ·······················································382
3) 2015~2016년 러시아 국민의 고통(Misery Index) ·································396
8. 2010년대 세계 경제의 뉴노멀과 러시아 경제의 장기 침체 ················399
1) 2010년대 세계 경제의 뉴노멀 ··························································399
2) 2010년대 러시아 주요 거시경제 성과 ···············································400
3) 2010년대 거시경제정책 변화 ···························································420
(1) 재정정책 : 예산준칙(budget rule) 강화 | 421
(2) 환율정책 : 완전 변동환율제로 전환 | 428
(3) 통화정책 : 물가안정목표제(Inflation Targeting) 도입 | 434
9. 2020년 코로나19(COVID-19) 팬데믹과 러시아 경제 ·······················437
1) 코로나19 팬데믹과 세계 경제 ···························································437
2) 코로나19 팬데믹과 러시아 정부의 경기 부양 ·······································439
(1) 2020년 코로나19 팬데믹의 러시아 전파 | 439
(2) 러시아 정부의 정책 대응 | 440
3) 코로나19 팬데믹과 러시아 경제의 충격 ··············································446
10. 2022년 우크라이나 전쟁과 러시아의 전시경제 ····························457
1) 서방(미국과 EU)의 제재 ·································································457
(1) 개인 및 단체(기업) 제재 | 458
(2) 금융 제재 | 459
(3) 무역 제재 | 459
(4) 에너지 부문 제재 | 460
2) 제재와 전쟁의 영향 ·······································································461
3) 크렘린의 대응 전략 ·······································································468
(1) 중앙은행의 자본 통제 | 468
(2) 교역 파트너의 아시아로의 전환 | 470
(3) 경제의 탈달러화(De-dollarization) | 472
(4) 전시 재정 편성과 운영 | 474
(5) 에너지 부문 세율 조정과 초과 이윤세 | 476
4) 전쟁과 제재의 경제적 충격 ······························································477
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이종문
경북대학교 경영학과 졸업
모스크바국립국제관계대학교(MGIMO)
국제경제학과 졸업(석사, 박사)
부산외국어대학교 러시아학과 교수
저서 및 논문
· 현대 러시아 경제(2007)
· 유라시아 경제의 이해(2019)
· 러시아 에너지 경제학(2019)
· 우크라이나 전쟁과 러시아 경제의 충격(2023)
· 2000년 이후 러시아 경제 위기 비교 분석(2024)
E-Mail: jmlee@bufs.ac.kr
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